*The NUGGET*

The Marauders just earned their first-ever points title this year. 118.4 ppg puts them in the middle of the pack in terms of points-champ scoring averages (9/19). They've never finished better than 3rd in scoring (even in their 3 championship seasons) save for a 2016 2nd-place showing where they came up 19 points shy of the Dominators. Contrast that with the Cheetahs, who've earned the honor 5 times in 18 seasons. 

Historically, points champions have not fared as well in the postseason. Two teams (the '16 Dominators and '08 Underdawgz) didn't even make the cut. In total, 7 teams have claimed the points title who've yet to win a championship.

LA Underdawgz!: '08
Brad's Crabs: '10
Ledford's Losers: '14
Dolla Dominators: '16
Slumerican Shitizens: '17
Walkertown FT: '21
Walkertown FT: '22

That doesn't mean a team that earns points honors is doomed by any means. 7 teams have also carried their scoring momentum to the trophy stand.

Ghetto Krackaddicts: '06
Benny's Bruisers: '11
Hollywood Undead: '12
For Whom Odell Tolls: '15
Dire Wolves: '18
El Equipo de 4:20: '19
Conover Cheetahs: '23

What history tells us is that 11 of our 18 title winners were not the top scorer during the regular season. It's a nice honor, but certainly doesn't guarantee a good finish.

◀PLayoff Central▶

Addicts (10-3): Locked up the top overall seed. Bye in Week 15.

For teams 2-6, all 5 have 8-5 records, so Week 14 will set the order. Scoring difference (- team above) listed for tiebreak context.

Marauders: Secure WS division and bye week with win vs. Wolves. 4-6 WC with loss.

Wolves (-98): Secure WS division and #2 or #3 seed with win vs Marauders. 4-6 WC with loss.

Dominators (-48): Lock up Rest division and #2 or #3 seed with win vs. Bruisers. 4-6 WC with loss unless Losers also lose.

Remix (-18): Wild Card 4-5 seed with win vs. Crushers, 5-6 seed with loss.

Losers (-30.5): Lock up Rest division and #3 seed with win vs. Cheetahs. 5-6 seed with loss.

*Wk 10 NUGGET*

Let's talk Power Ranks. They rarely reflect the actual order of standings--even with wins factored in at 1.2x of the total formula. What all's included in the calculation?

Total Points / Pts. Last Wk / Total Wins / Next Wk Projection / Overall Rank (ESPN) / ROS Rank (FP)

These are all divided down into a 7-10 point scale (with fringe exceptions). The average becomes your Power Score. The ranks are based on the PS. It's easy to see how recent performance, injuries, bye weeks, etc. can affect the score, as it is supposed to reflect both past/future. 

How accurate are the rankings at capturing what's to come?

This custom formula has been in use since '22 and only tweaked a couple of times. Let's use the Week 11 Power Ranks from the last two years and see how accurately they captured the teams who would make the playoffs 4 weeks thereafter.

Wk 11, 2022: Of the top 6 teams, 5 qualified for the playoffs. The Bruisers (10th) went on a great run and displaced the Remix from that group.
Wk 11, 2023: Of the top 6, 4 qualified for the playoffs. The Crew (7th) and Addicts (9th) both won 3 of their last 4 to make the dance, while the Threat and Marauders dropped a pair of games each to miss out.

In short, the Power Rankings are not a great predictor, but instead a finger on the pulse. They skew slightly when teams have massive games or crap the bed. Naturally, they get more steady and accurate as the season winds down. The Commish believes they are superior to ESPN's "power rankings", though that isn't saying much.

*Wk 8 NUGGET*

Big numbers from players (40+) and teams (150+). Where are they?

To this point in the season, we've had 2 scores of 150+...the Losers' 164 in Wk 8 and the Crew's 175.5 in Wk 2.
Alvin Kamara posted 40 for the Crew that same week.

And that's it for the big milestones we track every season. How does it compare?

Looking back over the last 10 seasons, it's a significant drop-off. Just last year, there had already been 6 150+ games by this point. 4 by Week 8 of '22. Only 2020 had fewer occurrences (1), but there were 8 by season's end.

As for 40-point games, the average number of those over the last decade is 5.2. Last year there were only 3, but 9,7,8 in the three seasons before that.

Injuries and suppressed offensive numbers may be to blame, but unless this season follows the 2017 model--where only 4 teams reached 150 and only 3 players scored 40--watch for more explosive moments to start piling up soon!

* Wk 7 NUGGET *

The Cheetahs and Football Team combined for 130 points in their unsightly Week 7 matchup, less than a couple of individual teams managed on their own. The total felt low enough that it warranted a look back to see how long it's been...

Week 16, 2023: In one of the ugliest LOC semifinal games ever, the Wolves and Football Team combined for just 127 points, with the Wolves winning 83.5-43.5.

Week 17, 2022: The Damar Hamlin game's sudden conclusion cut the Crushers scoring significantly, and they lost to the Crew 82-37. Combined total - 119. Special circumstances.

Those were recent, but it doesn't happen often. You'd have go all the way back to Week 3 of 2012 for the next one, when the Addicts beat the Coonhounds 82.5-47.5 in a forgotten classic.

Specifically, there have only been 20 prior occurrences of a combined score of 130 or less, and 18 of them happened in the first 7 seasons. The worst of the worst? A 98-point, 77-21 Week 15 special from 2010 (Coonhounds over Cougars).

As rare as it is to see scores that low in the modern iteration of the game, we got one for the third straight season.

* Wk 6 NUGGET *

What does your internal roster assessment look like? What's a bottom-line plan that--if executed properly--could get you in the playoffs every season? Not to say it's foolproof or some magic breakthrough (because injuries and bad luck happen), but an approach that's worth your consideration? It's what the Commish is using to judge your team's value. Take it with a grain of salt, but at least take that one grain.

"Central Seven": The seven players you have to be 100% confident that you can start every week. In this view, that is 1 QB, 3 RBs, and 3 WRs. Of course you can't start all 6 of these RBs/WRs, but you should have them and start the best 5 weekly. Are you all set at those spots? Outside of bye weeks or multiple injuries at the positions, this ensures a 75-point average. Add your every-week QB to that and you should be knocking on the door of 90-100 points from those starters alone.

The other positions are treated largely as streamers with few exceptions. IDP, TE, D/ST and Kicker. No offense to the leading scorer (Bruisers), who own the current top kicker and defense. No one would deny the value/consistency there, but investing in the Central Seven means you'll have to rely on the waiver wire or just smart planning to keep up at these ancillary positions. And that is totally fine.

If you can get 30 combined points out of those 4 spots (and you can with streams), then your floor is at least 120 points, which historically gives you a 79% chance of winning your matchup. Get to 125, those chances jump to 84.1%. 130 makes it 88.5%. On that note, the days of "100 points is a good game" are behind us. The century mark will generally only beat 36% of your opponents. That's a 5-9 record waiting to happen.

Dice rolls are likely to sink you in close games, so the C7 approach keeps that temptation at bay. Doesn't mean you can't flex for fun or when the right opportunity presents itself, but this model hinges on core roster strength--where ceilings are high and where you can expect consistency. Trade or cycle as necessary until you have those 7 players locked up. Then maintain depth. The other positions become a streaming bonus. That's the plan. Will it work for you?

This missive was going to be in the Midseason Report, but there's no point in saving it. There are 1000 ways to manage your team, and the above is just one way to approach things. The May-rauders are still working on their version of the C7, and God only knows if that will work out for them. May...may not.

* Wk 5 NUGGET *

A six-pack of tasty nuggets from Week 5...

1 - For the 6th time in history, a team scored 90+ points and still got a Fumble. (Losers)
2 - The Wolves scored 140+ in back-to-back weeks for the 3rd time in franchise history ('20, '23).
3 - 143 points is great by any standard, but that's the lowest high score for Week 5 in six seasons.
4 - 9 of 12 teams reached 100 points this week, the most since Week 12 of last year.
5 - The Crew dropped to 4-1, the earliest LMS exit since '15, when the 3-0 Wolves/Addicts both lost.
6 - For the second straight year and third time in all Week 5's, 4 teams reached at least 130 points. ('13, '23)

* Wk 4 NUGGET *

This week we take a quick look at historical margins of victory, inspired by the hotly contested matchup between the Threat/Bruisers in Wk 4. 

There have been 1751 matchups in LOC history. Of those, 62 were decided by one point or less. In other words, LOC games end up that close about 3.5% of the time. Pretty rare.

We didn't see any blowouts this past week--defined as a 50+ point margin of victory. Seems like a high threshold, right? I mean, winning by 35.5 (like the Crew over Crushers) would seemingly qualify.

The reason for it is simple. Blowouts are much more common than close games. There have been 192 games decided by 50 or more! That's nearly 11% of all matchups. Just for fun, if we lowered the blowout threshold to 35, the number of occurrences increases to 471! That's 27% of all games ever played.

* Wk 3 NUGGET *

Week 3 leaves us with 7 teams currently owning a record below .500. Has that ever happened before?

No, it hasn't. Will it stay that way? It's way too early to be making grand pronouncements about how the season will progress. 

Has there even been a season where more than 6 teams actually finished with a losing record? Also, no.

There have been 4 seasons where exactly half the league finished at 6-8 or worse.
2021 / 2011 / 2009 / 2007

So it seemed to be a trend in the early days but has only happened once in the last dozen years. What about the other end of the spectrum?

There have been 2 seasons where 9 teams finished with winning records.
2016 / 2014

That 2016 season stands out, as 6 teams finished at exactly 7-7.  We saw an epic Wild Card battle unfold in the final two weeks.

No matter the start, W/L records tend to balance out like everything else.

* Wk 2 NUGGET *

The biggest showing in Week 2 was clearly the 175.5-point game from the Crew. Where does it stand in terms of LOC history?

This ties the '14 Bruisers as the 8th-highest score all-time and is one of only 15 scores to reach the 170-point threshold. It is also the most points scored in a Week 2 game (previously 165).

It surpasses the Crew's franchise record of 170 set back in 2019, and it's the first time the number has been reached since the '22 title game (when the Cheetahs went for 208).

Who else has reached that threshold?

Cheetahs, Losers, Bruisers, Crushers, Wolves, and the Football Team.

6 of those 7 have hit the mark more than once. The other 5 active franchises have never reached it.

On average, 170+ happens once every year and a half, so the Crew can at least bask in the moment.

* Wk 1 NUGGET *

Week 1 gave us an even split in terms of good/bad, but it absolutely defied the historical averages. Half the league scored 84 points or fewer. That hasn't happened since 2010. In fact, you have to go back those 15 seasons to find a Week 1 where more than 3 teams finished that low! And that was pre-flex and before the current milestone bonuses. What the hell happened?

The lack of preseason action for most starters in the league has to be a factor. Rust was evident for a number of high-caliber players and teams. It can't be that half of the drafts were that bad. 

Just to add to the comparisons, the average Week 1 score historically is 102.1 points. This week the average was 98.9, so while there were lower individual scores, the net average wasn't drastically reduced. 

As for being competitive, the average margin of victory in Week 1 was 18.8 points. That's a full 5 points closer than the 18-year average of 23.8 points for the opening week. So at least the games were hard fought. 

Week 2 should paint a different picture for some of the lower scorers from the opener...unless this is to become the '24 standard.

The NUGGET - Wk 16

It's thankfully rare that teams fail to break 50 points in an LOC matchup. Though it's happened 31 times in the league's 18-year history, there have only been 4 occurrences since 2016. The most recent one--the Damarr Hamlin game from last year--is noted with an asterisk, as the Crushers (who finished at 37) had multiple players given a 0 because of the cancellation.

Here are the 50 & Unders from the last 7 seasons:

Wk 17, 2022 / Cliff's Crushers - 37*
Wk 16, 2023 / Walkertown FT - 43.5
Wk 7, 2019 / Dolla' Dominators - 50
Wk 11, 2021 / Praetorian Guard - 50

As for the postseason, there have been 9 such occurrences. If there's any solace for the Football Team to take, it's that 3 of the worst letdowns were actually in LOC title games. Sometimes it just doesn't go your way.

LOC Bowl I / 420 Crew - 47
LOC Bowl III / Claremont Cougars - 43
LOC Bowl V / ELI'd 2 ME - 47

The NUGGET - Wk 14

Week 14 gave us a litany of interesting notables, some of which were referenced in the review. Here is one that encapsulates the competitive season we just witnessed.
8 teams finished 7-7 or better this year.

That's the highest % of winning teams at season's end since 2016, when 9 teams finished 7-7 or above. In fact, from '12 to '16, 8+ teams finished on the winning side every single year. But we haven't seen it since! Good to see a return to parity in the battle for league position.

On the other end of the spectrum, you have to go all the way back to 2009 to find a season where only 6 teams finished 7-7 or better. That was also true in '06 and '07 (5 of 10).  

Will we ever see a season where less than half the teams reach .500? Hopefully not, though it would make for an interesting postseason. From the commish's perspective, it's a lot more compelling to have successful teams battling for the trophy.

The NUGGET - Wk 13

A six-pack of tasty nuggets from Week 13...

1 - The Wolves set a franchise record for consecutive wins with 7 straight.
2 - For the 14th time in 18 seasons, two teams went over 150 in the same week.
3 - For the first time ever, two teams shared an OTW while going over 150 (Addicts/Crew).
4 - The Remix are assured a winning record + playoff spot for the first time since '19.
5 - The Cheetahs are now in a position to extend their league record of 4 scoring titles to 5.
6 - The Dominators became only the second team to record 10 consecutive losses (Crushers-12).

The NUGGET - Wk 12

There was never a Fumble of 90+ points in the first 9 seasons of the LOC. Then, in Week 6 of the '15 season, the Colony Square Scientologists posted 92 points--incidentally, that was the first of what would be a record 5 consecutive weeks of Fantasy Fumbles for the Scis. Ouch.

It wasn't until 2018 (when the Marauders Fumbled at 91.5) that the 90+ threshold was reached again.

In Week 2 of 2020, the Bruisers set the all-time Fumble high, with 95 points. Both the Cheetahs and Marauders notched 91-point Fumbles in the '21 season, but otherwise the record has remained unchallenged.

That is, until Week 12 of this year....Benny's Bruisers put a respectable 96 points, but that turned out to be the league low for the week. It also becomes the new record for most points scored in a Fumble. It's not the best kind of history, but the achievement is still historic. Certainly beats the opposite!

This result will be added to the League Superlatives chart in the Record Book.

The NUGGET - Wk 11

The closest margin of victory in Week 11 was 10.5 points. The average margin of victory was 27.33 points.

How does that stack up against the weekly point differential thus far?

Here are the average win margins for all 11 weeks:

1 - 29.92 pts
2 - 18.25 pts
3 - 15.75 pts
4 - 19.08 pts
5 - 44.67 pts
6 - 20.17 pts
7 - 16.08 pts
8 - 24.50 pts
9 - 20.67 pts
10 - 23.50 pts
11 - 27.33 pts

Week 11 is the 3rd-highest in terms of avg. margin of victory (behind Wks. 1 and 5).
In Week 1, there were two games decided by 3 points or less.
In Week 5, the closest margin was 24.5 points.
Week 11 represented the third consecutive week in which no matchup was decided by 5 points or less. 

So does that mean the games are getting less competitive? At least as far as final outcomes, that's the trend. We'll see if Week 12 delivers close battles as the playoffs begin to beckon.

The NUGGET - Wk 10

Let's talk about floors for a moment. 

In Week 10, the league's scoring floor was 87.5 points (Addicts), with ten out of the twelve teams reaching 100 points. This is the first time all year that at least 10 teams reached 100 in a given week. 

The Fumble at 87.5 was the second-highest low score for a week (Wk 8, Dolla-89) this season. In fact, those two scores were the highest scoring Fantasy Fumbles since '21, when both the Cheetahs and Marauders notched 91-point Fumbles.

As for teams crossing the 100-point threshold, how long has it been since at least 10 teams reached 100? It doesn't happen as often as you might think. The last occurrence was Wk. 17 of 2021.

There has never been a week where everyone scored over 100, but in Week 2 of 2020, 11 out of 12 teams reached the century mark. That was the same week that the highest-scoring Fumble was recorded, when the Bruisers put up 95. The average number of teams scoring <100 is around 4 per week.

In an era when it seems more points than ever are being accumulated, there are always teams having down days. Will we ever see the floor raised to 100+ for weekly play? 

The NUGGET - Wk 9

Mixing it up with the Remix soon? You'll want to make sure the floor is clean. 

Odds are that it will be a low-scoring affair, that it will be close, and that the OG's will emerge victorious. If the trend continues, the Remix could become the first team in LOC history to earn a #1 seed and not be in the top half of league scoring.

Thus far, 5 of the 7 Remix wins have been within a 5.5-point margin. 4 of them were accomplished with 90 points or less. Dan's band currently holds the LOC's best record...while worst in overall scoring.

It might seem like a complete contradiction, but of course, timing is everything. One week at a time, playing the matchups, with a bit of luck thrown in for good measure. The Remix seemingly have that strategy nailed down.

As for historical precedent, here are the years in which the top overall seed wasn't the top scorer (w/ their actual scoring position):

2008 - Brad's Crabs (3rd)
2014 - 4:20 Crew (3rd)
2016 - The Remix (4th)
2018 - 4:20 Crew (3rd)
2022 - Ghetto KA (4th)

Only one of those teams emerged as a champion...and it was the '16 Remix! So it can be done. Will the '23 team find their way into the top 4 in scoring by season's end? If not, we could be in uncharted waters, but overcoming odds is what the Remix have done all year.

The NUGGET - Wk 8

Let's talk about streaking for a moment. The good kind...fully-clothed fantasy win streaks.

With their win on Monday night, the Losers made it 5 straight. They are only two weeks away from tying the W7 the franchise set back in Weeks 6-12 of 2010. That year, led by Brees, J Charles and Megatron, the Ledford express started out a woeful 0-5 before rolling out seven straight wins. The fun stalled out late, with the eventual champs (Crew) and points champs (Crabs) handing them elimination losses in Weeks 13-14. This year's version started similarly, with an 0-3 start before the current W5. Of course, the Losers will look for an improved finish to this iteration. 

If they defy all odds and continue to stack W's without fail, they would eventually challenge the elite air occupied by the best two streaks of all time. The LOC record was set last year by the Krackaddicts, who put together a ridiculous 13-game win streak (Wk 16 '21 - Wk 11 '22). The only other double-digit dub streak belongs to the Cheetahs, who ran up 12 in a row back in 2015 (as the Odells).

That sort of history isn't easily challenged, but if the Losers can keep things rolling, you never know...

The NUGGET - Wk 7

With the Wolves' league-leading performance in Week 7, that was their 4th Owner of the Week already this year.

The OTW record for a single season? 5x.

It was the Crew who accomplished that feat. Twice. In both 2018 and 2019, they posted the top score in 5 out of 14 regular season weeks. Interestingly, the '18 team didn't notch their first one until Week 7. Strong second half to say the least! The '19 squad followed that up by going 12-2 and winning the title (the Crew's 3rd overall).

The Wolves are on pace for a whopping 8 this year if they stay healthy, consistent, and make the right starting calls. That would truly be unprecedented, but history is being made every week in the LOC. It will be interesting to see what happens. 

The NUGGET - Wk 6

This week's Nugget might be more of a midseason exercise, but today we look back at each team's historical record through 6 weeks, along with how it translated to the finish line. 

This will be more of an overview of averages and your tendencies toward closing strength. Do you generally improve as the season goes on or do things tend to spiral? No matter the historical averages, all it takes is one strong run to change them.

Bruisers
By W/L: 6-0 (1x), 5-1 (1x), 4-2 (6x), 3-3 (4x), 2-4 (4x), 1-5 (2x), 0-6 (0x)
Average 6-Week Win %: .528
Average Final Win %: .525
Closing Differential: -.03 

Cheetahs
By W/L: 6-0 (4x), 5-1 (2x), 4-2 (4x), 3-3 (3x), 2-4 (4x), 1-5 (0x), 0-6 (0x)
Average 6-Week Win %: .657
Average Final Win %: .607
Closing Differential: -.50

Crew
By W/L: 6-0 (0x), 5-1 (2x), 4-2 (5x), 3-3 (6x), 2-4 (2x), 1-5 (1x), 0-6 (2x)
Average 6-Week Win %: .500
Average Final Win %: .563
Closing Differential: +.63 

Crushers
By W/L: 6-0 (0x), 5-1 (2x), 4-2 (3x), 3-3 (6x), 2-4 (4x), 1-5 (2x), 0-6 (1x)
Average 6-Week Win %: .463
Average Final Win %: .487
Closing Differential: +.24 

Dominators
By W/L: 6-0 (0x), 5-1 (2x), 4-2 (1x), 3-3 (2x), 2-4 (7x), 1-5 (2x), 0-6 (1x)
Average 6-Week Win %: .400
Average Final Win %: .444
Closing Differential: +.44 

Football Team
By W/L: 6-0 (0x), 5-1 (0x), 4-2 (4x), 3-3 (6x), 2-4 (3x), 1-5 (4x), 0-6 (0x)
Average 6-Week Win %: .451
Average Final Win %: .446
Closing Differential: -.05  

Krackaddicts
By W/L: 6-0 (1x), 5-1 (4x), 4-2 (7x), 3-3 (4x), 2-4 (2x), 1-5 (0x), 0-6 (0x)
Average 6-Week Win %: .648
Average Final Win %: .567
Closing Differential: -.81 

Losers
By W/L: 6-0 (0x), 5-1 (0x), 4-2 (3x), 3-3 (2x), 2-4 (3x), 1-5 (2x), 0-6 (0x)
Average 6-Week Win %: .433
Average Final Win %: .492
Closing Differential: +.59 

Marauders
By W/L: 6-0 (0x), 5-1 (2x), 4-2 (4x), 3-3 (5x), 2-4 (4x), 1-5 (3x), 0-6 (0x)
Average 6-Week Win %: .481
Average Final Win %: .500
Closing Differential: +.19

Remix
By W/L: 6-0 (0x), 5-1 (4x), 4-2 (1x), 3-3 (2x), 2-4 (1x), 1-5 (3x), 0-6 (0x)
Average 6-Week Win %: .530
Average Final Win %: .457
Closing Differential: -.73  

Threat
By W/L: 6-0 (0x), 5-1 (0x), 4-2 (2x), 3-3 (1x), 2-4 (0x), 1-5 (0x), 0-6 (0x)
Average 6-Week Win %: .500
Average Final Win %: .571
Closing Differential: +.71

Wolves
By W/L: 6-0 (0x), 5-1 (1x), 4-2 (4x), 3-3 (3x), 2-4 (4x), 1-5 (0x), 0-6 (0x)
Average 6-Week Win %: .543
Average Final Win %: .507
Closing Differential: -.36

The NUGGET - Wk 4

Commish's Note: A Thursday adjustment removed the tie, but the Nugget is being left as-is.

On the rare occasion that we have a tie game in the LOC, the need to reopen the history book presents itself. With the Dominators/Cheetahs tie in Week 4, the league logged its 11th tie in 17+ seasons.

This latest draw was the highest-scoring of all of them with 263 combined points. It was also the first since Week 6 of 2020 when B Dub's Ballers won a postgame-adjustment tie against the Wolves.

James has been involved in the most tie games (3). Charlie and Will are the only current owners to have never tied. Of the previous 10 league ties, 8 occurred in the regular season.

Regular Season Ties:
Wk. 6, '06 // Crew over Crushers
Wk. 3, '09 // Breaston over Bastards
Wk. 9, '09 // Dominators over Bruisers
Wk. 9, '11 // Bruisers over Nature Boys
Wk. 2, '14 // Undead over 49ers
Wk. 7, '16 // Wolves over Marauders
Wk. 8, '17 // Crew over Remix
Wk. 6, '20 // Ballers over Wolves

Postseason Ties:
Back in '06, Team Koehler and the Krackaddicts went to a bench tiebreak in Week 15, with the Addicts hoisting the trophy the following week. A meaningless Week 16 consolation game the next year saw the Marauders tiebreak vs. the Claremont Cougars. Of course, no one has forgotten the championship tie in 2015 between the Crew and the Odells, but that one didn't officially end that way. 🙂
---

How rare is a tie game? There have been 1668 matchups in LOC history, so the historical occurrence rate is 0.65%. That's even more unlikely than the odds of a team scoring 170+ in a given matchup (.084%), which also happened in Wk 4 (Walkertown). It has to be the first time both have occurred in the same week, right?

Upon further review, no! In Wk. 15 of 2006 when the Addicts/Koehler tied, Cliff's Crushers were posting 172 points over in the consolation bracket (thanks to LT). That single-game scoring record would stand until Wk. 9 of 2013 (Wolves/178.5).

So while ties and 170-point games are both extremely rare, every 17 years they might just collide.

The NUGGET - Wk 3

What's average in the LOC? We looked last year at the baseline average for a good game (as a refresher, it was 107 points). What about to earn Owner of the Week? Or to cough up a Fantasy Fumble?

As a measure of 17 seasons and 3 weeks, these are the average numbers...
OTW: 139.9 points
FF: 66.0 points

Teams score more than they did in the early years of the league. No doubt about it. Rule changes to incentivize great performances have driven the averages up. Let's isolate the last 5 years (current scoring) for a more accurate picture.
OTW:  144.2 points
FF: 71.5 points 

Basically a 5-point bump in both averages. So working from the baseline of 107 as a good game in the modern era, its not surprising that the top-score average is 37 points above that and the low-score average is 36 below it. 

We'll finish the nug with a look at the numbers thus far in '23. Who is averaging at least 107 ppg?
Currently, the Wolves, Marauders, Crew, Cheetahs, and Threat fit that bill. Their combined record thus far? 10-5 with all 3 OTW's. 

You might be thinking...the Cheetahs/Threat are 1-2...and the Remix are 3-0 with only one score of 107+. Like every other metric in this game, timing is the most important element. The takeaway: Keep putting up points and the law of averages should eventually work in your favor.

The NUGGET - Wk 2

Today we look at the historical connection between owning the top scorer and postseason success. We start with who's won the most. Cliff's Crushers holds that record with 4 MVPs: '06, '17, '19, and '20. The names are familiar...LDT, Gurley, Lamar, and Mahomes.

The Crushers parlayed one of those years ('17) into an LOC title. The Dominators have won 3 MVPs ('11, '14, '16) but haven't yet brought the trophy home. The Cheetahs have laid claim to 3 themselves, but only the '15 team went on to win it all. 

Only 4 times in LOC history has the team holding the MVP actually won the title. And 5 of our 9 champions have never had one. Perhaps owning the top scorer means potential shortages elsewhere? Here's the entire list with each team's final standing. Champs in bold.

2022: Losers (5th)
2021: Wolves (12th)
2020: Crushers (10th)
2019: Crushers (12th)
2018: Wolves (1st)
2017: Crushers (1st)
2016: Dominators (7th)
2015: Odells (1st)
2014: Dominators (8th)
2013: Undead (3rd)
2012: Losers  (3rd)
2011: Dominators (4th)
2010: Crew (1st)
2009: Crabs (4th)
2008: Hicks (7th)
2007: Crew (3rd)
2006: Crushers (6th)

If you'd like to peruse MVP info in more detail, check out the newly expanded Champions page.

The NUGGET  (Wk 1)

We witnessed an epic performance by the Cowboys D/ST on Sunday night, propelling the Threat to an unlikely comeback win with 42 points. That has to be a record, right? Well...almost.

Defenses rarely score over 30 points in the LOC (or any league for that matter). The Crew's 49ers D posted 38 back in '08(?), and no other defense approached it for several years. What about 40? That mark has been reached 3 times--including this Cowboys explosion. Here's where it ranks:

Seahawks D/ST: 43 points (Undead / Wk. 14, 2012)
Cowboys D/ST: 42 points (Threat / Wk. 1, 2023)
Patriots D/ST: 40 points (Barkley / Wk. 2, 2019)

In other words, it's super rare. An impressive showing, especially given the outcome-changing nature of this particular night.

The Nugget (Wk 17)

Our last Nugget of the year is certainly the most predictable. With 208 points in the championship game, the Conover Cheetahs not only destroyed the previous title game record set by the Crushers in 2017 (163), they cruised right past the postseason record of 178 (Wolves, 2019).

In becoming the second team to ever reach 200 points in a game, and getting within a point of the all-time single game scoring record, the Cheetahs set a high bar that will be nearly impossible to reach. This effort will live on as one of the greatest performances in LOC history.

The Nugget (Wk 16)

Regular season performance doesn't guarantee postseason success. It certainly helps though, right? Let's look at the championship spread since '06 based on regular season record.

13-1: 1x
12-2: 3x
11-3: 1x
10-4: 2x
9-5: 4x
8-6: 4x
7-7: 1x

Unsurprisingly, the two most common playoff records (9-5, 8-6) also have the most associated championships. Still, it's a wide swath of outcomes across the standings. So then how about the likelihood of a team with 10+ wins winning a title? 21 teams have finished 10 or more wins. 7 of them won titles. Simple math puts the success rate at 33.3%. Might seem low, but it's better than 1 out of 4 and certainly better than 1 out of 6. 

In summary, a team with less than 10 wins wins the title more often, but having 10+ immediately improves your title success rate by 50%. Worth aiming for next season.

The Nugget (Wk 15)

The elusive 40-point threshold for individual scoring has been reached 70 times in LOC history. 7 of those happened in the '22 campaign. In totality, every week (including the playoffs) has had multiple instances of 40 being reached except for 1.

Week 15. The only player to ever reach the mark in a Wk 15 game was Cam Newton. He put up 42 points in the 2015 semifinals while leading For Whom Odell Tolls towards a second championship. 

Side note: Cam didn't have a tackle that game, but he got one the following week. 

The Nugget (Wk 14)

It is by no means a negative for the Crushers, as their 113.5 points was good enough for Owner of the Week. But historically, that is the lowest OTW in a Week 14 in 17 seasons. Yes, that includes the 2007-2010 window. Not only that, the overall points scored in Week 14 were the lowest in a season closer in 7 years. While the games were close, the absence of 6 teams due to the unprecedented Week 14 bye (and a number of injuries) likely tamped down the scoring. Wins and losses aside, it wasn't our best week.

The Nugget (Wk 13)

Winning the Points title is a big deal, and the Football Team are about to win their second straight. What does that achievement mean as far as postseason success? Of the 11 different Points champs over 16 LOC seasons, here are the ones who turned it into an LOC Championship.

2006 - Addicts (1658)
2007 - Crushers (1405)
2011 - Bruisers (1708)
2012 - Undead (1637)
2015 - Odell Tolls (1679)
2018 - Wolves (1753.5)
2019 - de 4:20 (1838)

7 out of 16 isn't exactly a lock. That's 43.75% of the time. The worst finish by a Points Champ? 2008, when LA Underdawgz missed the playoffs and went 5-9 despite outscoring the rest of the league. The lowest-ranked team (in terms of points) to ever win it all? The 2014 Marauders, who notched their 2nd title that year despite finishing 6th in overall scoring. 

The Nugget (Wk 12)

The Football Team just clinched a playoff spot for the 4th straight season. How many times has that happened in LOC history?

The Cheetahs made the dance 4 straight times from 2010-2013 (known during that run as Eli'd 2 Me/A7X/Hollywood Undead), with the '12 Undead squad giving James his first title. 4 franchises have made it 3 times in a row, but to do it 4x? Rare air.

The Nugget (Wk 11)

With 9 teams fighting for 5 playoff spots, the notion of a 7-7 team making the cut is often mentioned. Here are the 4 teams who've made the dance with that record (and their final standing):

2017 Marauders (2nd)
2016 Marauders (4th)
2009 Dominators (2nd)
2008 Crushers (1st)

Will an expanded field and a tight race yield a 5th 7-7 team in this year's postseason? We'll soon know.